Heck. It is only September and we’ve already had at least three 100 year events in the Portland area: global pandemic, an extreme weather change that caused extreme wind gusts, and raging wild fires along the entire west coast of the United States. There might be more, and we aren’t even to the end of the year!

The thing is, conditions have changed and the 100 year events have been on the radar screens of many experts for a while. It was only a matter of time, a short time, before they happened. And they will probably occur more frequently than every 100 years going forward.

It’s the same thing about changing conditions in business. Looking to the past to guide the future makes sense under some circumstances, but not others. In evaluating risk, you need to assess the current environment, not the past environment to adequately mitigate and manage risk.

Are you paying attention to risks that are likely to occur today that were once considered unlikely?

The sign said accident five miles ahead, left and center lanes blocked. Surely there would be a significant backup with only one lane open. So, I turned on GPS to find the best way around the situation. The detour was fantastic. I was able to bypass the traffic and get back on the freeway. All the while I was watching the backup grow on the freeway from the side streets.

There are signs all around us about what is going on with the economy, our customers and our business. If you watch for the signs you can easily navigate varying situations. But if you don’t, you will find yourself in a mess at some point. Are you missing the signs? If so, it is time to start watching.

I used to work a business that built things. Sometimes they built facilities that had a new technology or process. They would build a small facility to test new technology or process. Once it worked, they would build the facility at scale. Many times building the exact same thing only bigger didn’t work. Some things always had to be adjusted.

And that is true in business. When growing a company, you can’t just do the same thing with more people. Things will start to break. You need to make changes as you scale to be successful. You need technology and leaders to get people focused on the right thing. Successful companies figure this out and make adjustments. Those that don’t don’t make it.

Have you thought about what you need to do differently to grow your business?

Last week, my deck refinishing kicked off when the contractor showed up with the stain chips to choose from. The thing is, looking at a 1 inch square doesn’t give a real perspective of what the color actually looks like at scale. Usually contractors paint a sample to confirm the color, but it was skipped this time. And what a mistake that was! Rather than the red tone I was looking for to match my fence, the stain was peach/orange. Luckily, we caught it early and the stain was swapped out for the color I was looking for.

Scaling is one of the toughest things in business. What works at a small scale, does not always work at a large scale. It could be your vision is completely distorted when scale is reached. Or maybe the technology works in a small environment, but not a big environment. And while most people have experience with scaling gone awry, thinking through what needs to be done to scale frequently gets skipped. It is the classic pitfall in scaling. How do you avoid the pitfalls of scaling?

Check out my new book, Leading the High-Performing Company. You’ll find more tips about how to lead your organization to new heights.

The roads in the area are in the process of being repaved. When I moved here, they were in bad shape and have worsened in the decade since. Ruts, potholes, and rough pavement made the drive an adventure. But it wasn’t until the freshly paved lane stood next to the lane waiting to be repaved that I realized just how bad the old one was. The freshly paved lane was quiet and smooth. Switching lanes brought a significant amount of noise and vibration from the rough surface.

The thing is, things wear down over time. They don’t work quite as well. The friction increases. And it isn’t until they are fixed that you realize how bad it was. That’s why it is important to have measures in place to signal when it is time to make a change. If you go by feel alone, you’ll miss when it is time to pull the trigger. How are you measuring the friction in your business?